China Warns India Against Blocking Water to Pakistan

Senior Chinese expert Victor Gao recently and very significantly China Warns warned India, saying that any attempt to stop water flow to Pakistan would be seen by China as a direct attack on the integrity and sovereignty of her long-standing friend, Pakistan. This remark has heightened the already delicate and explosive geopolitical dynamics of South Asia, especially with relation to the Indus Waters Treaty and more general water sharing among the regional nations.
Speaking with Indian media, eminent Chinese policy analyst Victor Gao, vice president of the Centre for China and Globalization, made these comments. His comments capture China’s increasing openness to express support for Pakistan on subjects of national importance and to question India on divisive concerns including transboundary water flows. Gao underlined that Beijing firmly supports Pakistan’s claim to their fair share of natural resources, particularly the water that passes via India from the Himalayan glaciers into Pakistan. He said categorically that China would view any action India takes unilaterally changing this flow as a strategic provocation and a danger to regional stability.
“China supports the whole protection of Pakistan’s integrity, sovereignty, and natural rights,” Gao added. This statement not only expresses political solidarity with Pakistan but also creates the possibility of more Chinese participation in any conflict arising over water allocation. Such a posture has significant consequences, particularly because China is the upstream nation in many of the transboundary river systems of Asia, including those affecting India.
Victor Gao underlined even more that India, sandwiched between upstream China and downstream Pakistan, must behave with wisdom and equity. ” India lies midway on the river. It should consider for itself, he cautioned, what will those above do if it mistreats those below?” This metaphor-rich comment refers to the possibility of India’s own water supply being threatened should it set a precedent of changing natural river flows to disadvantage a downstream nation such as Pakistan. It also hints gently that China, the upstream power, can counterattack should India disregard the balance of transboundary water relations.
Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has so far withstood the test of time—even during major wars between the two nations. Among water-sharing agreements worldwide, it is regarded as one of the more successful ones. India owns the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) under the treaty; Pakistan owns the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). But in recent years, notably considering terrorist events New Delhi links to groups functioning from Pakistani territory, there has been increasing political discourse in India implying a re-evaluation or perhaps treaty withdrawal.
Victor Gao was clear in his belief that any infringement of the Indus Waters Treaty by India would violate international law in addition to erasing bilateral confidence with Pakistan. Emphasizing that violating the Indus Waters Treaty would violate international law, he said His comments underline the worldwide legal systems supporting such accords and draw attention to the possible worldwide reaction India could get should it try to revoke or unilaterally construe the pact.
The Chinese observer also presented a moral viewpoint on the matter. “Don’t treat others the way you wouldn’t like them to treat you,” he said, citing a Confucian precept. This comment is a warning as well as an appeal to India’s conscience since it implies that water warfare could result in reciprocal acts India itself would find unacceptable based on aggressiveness. Often disregarded, the ethical aspect of water diplomacy gives still another degree of complexity to South Asia’s geopolitics.
China’s clear support of Pakistan on this matter fits the general direction of their relations. Deep strategic cooperation between the two nations spans military cooperation, economic investments via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and diplomatic alignment on several worldwide concerns. China is strengthening this partnership by publicly supporting Pakistan on water rights, therefore conveying a message to India that Beijing will not be docile in the face of supposed Indian aggression.
Gao’s remarks coincide with rising tensions between India and China, especially following the fatal Galwan Valley conflicts in 2020 and continuous border disputes in the Himalayas. In this framework, water diplomacy may turn into yet another arena of geopolitical rivalry between the two Asian giants. Should India decide to cut water flow to Pakistan, it might set off a concerted diplomatic or even infrastructure reaction from China and Pakistan, therefore upsetting the area much more.
From a global standpoint, China’s participation in a bilateral water accord between India and Pakistan muddies things. Although the Indus Waters Treaty is clearly between India and Pakistan, China’s comments imply that it sees itself as a stakeholder in the regional water system and in the political consequences of any disturbance. This might allow multilateral pressure on India involving not only China but also other relevant parties who would see the unilateral change of water flow as a hazardous precedent in international water law.
Moreover, Victor Gao’s remarks beg issues concerning the possible militarization of water conflicts. Should water resources be considered strategic assets comparable to land or airspace, any apparent attack on water rights might bring not only diplomatic reprisal but even military reactions. Given China, Pakistan, and India’s nuclear capacity, the stakes in such conflicts are shockingly great.
Victor Gao’s comments remind us strongly of the complex connections among geopolitics, international law, and natural resources. His admonition to India not to cut water supplies to Pakistan is a statement of China’s geopolitical interests in South Asia, not only a policy recommendation. Cooperation frameworks and adherence of current accords become ever more important as conflicts over water sharing develop among climate change and rising water shortage. India, Pakistan, and China must walk carefully so that long-term need for regional peace and mutual respect is not subordinated to transient political calculations.