India’s Chenab Canal Project

In a significant development with far-reaching regional implications, the Modi government has announced plans to construct a canal within the next three years to divert surplus water from the Chenab River to Indian rivers. This move, aimed at maximizing India’s use of western river waters under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), poses a grave threat to Pakistan’s water security and its rights as a lower riparian state. Pakistan, already grappling with growing water scarcity and agricultural dependency on the Indus basin, finds itself in a precarious position as India seeks to further assert control over shared transboundary water resources.

India’s Canal Plan

India’s proposed canal project to divert Chenab’s surplus waters is part of a broader effort to optimize its water resource management and infrastructure development. While India maintains that the project complies with the IWT provisions, particularly under the “non-consumptive use” and “storage” rights on the western rivers, the magnitude and intent behind this canal reflect a strategic design. By enhancing its infrastructure on the Chenab, India is not only asserting physical control but is also tactically diminishing the flow of water to Pakistan during critical agricultural seasons.

Such a move is bound to affect the natural hydrological balance, seasonal flows, and downstream usage, particularly during lean periods. Though India argues that unutilized water flowing into Pakistan is technically not a violation, the diversion of this surplus via a permanent structure like a canal essentially changes the dynamics of shared water usage and weakens Pakistan’s long-term water security.

Pakistan’s Rights as the Lower Riparian State under the IWT

Under the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, were allocated primarily to Pakistan, while the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—were allocated to India. As the lower riparian state, Pakistan holds significant rights to the uninterrupted flow of the western rivers. Any diversion, obstruction, or alteration by the upper riparian state (India) must comply with the treaty’s stipulations, and any departure warrants scrutiny and challenge under international law.

The IWT, while largely resilient over the decades even through wartime tensions, is now under increasing stress. India’s aggressive water infrastructure strategy, including projects like Kishanganga, Ratle, and now the proposed Chenab canal, has triggered alarm in Pakistan. These developments, if unchecked, could erode the core principles of the treaty and set dangerous precedents for future violations.

The United Nations General Assembly

In response to India’s unilateral canal project, Pakistan possesses a legitimate right to raise the issue at international forums, most notably the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The UNGA provides Pakistan with a vital platform to highlight not only the technical and legal breaches of the IWT but also the strategic implications of India’s repeated encroachments on shared river waters.

By internationalizing the issue, Pakistan can expose the Modi government’s calculated undermining of the IWT, rally diplomatic support, and build pressure for third-party mediation or arbitration, as allowed under the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanisms. More importantly, this would place India under the global spotlight as a country potentially violating a water-sharing treaty seen as a model for peaceful transboundary water cooperation.

Pakistan’s narrative should emphasize its vulnerability as a lower riparian state, where millions depend on uninterrupted river flows for agriculture, industry, and daily sustenance. This narrative must be coupled with technical data, satellite imagery, environmental impact assessments, and legal arguments to make a compelling case before the international community.

Indian Violations

The proposed Chenab canal project is not an isolated event; it fits a broader pattern of India’s systematic erosion of the IWT framework. Projects such as the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Plant and the Ratle Dam have already pushed the treaty’s limits, with Pakistan contesting their legality through international arbitration.

The recurring theme in Indian policy under the Modi administration is to develop infrastructure on western rivers with the aim of reducing the volume and timing of water flow to Pakistan. These acts challenge the treaty’s spirit of cooperation and fair usage. Furthermore, India’s political rhetoric often hints at leveraging water as a pressure tool in bilateral relations, something explicitly disallowed under international law concerning shared watercourses.

A Strategic Water War Plan for Pakistan

Given the urgency and seriousness of the situation, Pakistan must adopt a robust, multi-pronged water strategy to counter India’s legal, political, and diplomatic manoeuvres. Strengthen the capabilities of Pakistan’s legal teams and engage international experts to contest Indian projects at neutral venues such as the International Court of Arbitration or the International Court of Justice, where applicable. Mobilize support among friendly countries and international institutions. Regular briefings, diplomatic notes, and alliances with other riparian countries can help generate global awareness and solidarity.

Invest in satellite surveillance, river flow monitoring systems, and hydrological modelling to collect concrete data on Indian activities and their impact on Pakistan’s water availability. Engage civil society, academia, and media to build national consensus and raise public awareness about the water crisis. A well-informed population strengthens the government’s negotiating power. Pakistan must work with other South Asian nations to revive regional water dialogue platforms, positioning itself as a champion of equitable water sharing.

India’s Chenab canal plan represents a serious threat not just to Pakistan’s water security but also to the sanctity of the Indus Waters Treaty. As the lower riparian state, Pakistan has every right to expose this plan at the United Nations and rally international support against such violations. But beyond protest, Pakistan must adopt a strategic, long-term “water war” plan to safeguard its vital interests, uphold international law, and ensure that the Indus basin remains a symbol of cooperation, not conflict.