India’s Fifth Generation Dilemma

In the aftermath of the 2019 Pulwama crisis, one of the several talking points the Indian government and media employed in order to save face was the idea that its losses were due to the fact that it had not yet inducted the Rafale. While the deal with Dassault had been finalized long ago, the first air frame was not to be inducted until the end of the same year. The Indian side argued that, had they inducted the Rafale just a few months earlier, it would have bested Pakistan’s Air Force. Over six years later, this argument has finally been put to rest with the downing of four Rafales on 7th May 2025. Once again, a torrent of disinformation and denial spewed forth from the Indian media, attempting to downplay their losses and making wild claims about the damage inflicted upon Pakistan. However, as these claims have been increasingly challenged by foreign observers, the instruments of the Indian state will soon be forced to find another means of satisfying the masses. In this article the possibility of India’s attempting to acquire a fifth generation platform and the problems it will face in doing so are analyzed.

Import or Indigenous?

Stealth aircraft have become increasingly proliferated, particularly in NATO countries due to the United States’ push to export the F-35 Lightning II. The F-35 has been procured by 19 American allies while China and Russia each have indigenously developed stealth fighters. While India has its own indigenous fifth generation ambitions in the form of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, even the most optimistic estimates aim for a 2035 induction. Moreover, by studying the development of India’s most recent indigenous aircraft, the HAL Tejas, which began development in 1983 but did not enter service until 2015, it is observed how unlikely it is that the Indian aerospace industry will be able to complete development by 2035. The major factor which, in my opinion, will force the Indian government to opt for importing rather than simply waiting for its own indigenous program to yield results is the fact that Pakistan has reportedly signed a contract to acquire 40 J-35s from China. Domestic political pressure, especially in the aftermath of its air force suffering yet another humiliating defeat, will not allow the Indian government to sit idly by while its greatest adversary acquires a fifth generation platform. With initial deliveries of the J-35 to Pakistan set to begin this year, the Indian government simply cannot afford to wait.

F-35 or SU-57

As of July 2025, there are currently four fifth generation fighter aircraft operated today, the American F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lighting II, the Chinese J-20 Mighty Dragon, and the Russian SU-57 Felon. By far, the most likely options for India are the F-35 and the SU-57. However, both of these options come with a host of problems the Indians will need to overcome, some having to do with the aircraft themselves and others with their manufacturers.

Choosing Washington

Over the past decade, India has increasingly tried to move towards the United States as its main supplier of weapons. This has been a mutually beneficial arrangement as Washington seeks to empower India as a regional counterbalance to China. In the last five years alone, India has spent $24 billion procuring armaments, much of it from western suppliers. Since the Cold War, India has proudly proclaimed itself the leader of the non-aligned movement and sought to chart a course between the United States and Russia, not leaning too heavily towards either side. Consequently, this has not been ideal for India’s defense procurements.

With its historic reliance on Russian weaponry, particularly military aircraft, the Indian military has discovered how difficult it is to integrate western systems into its existing arsenal. Modern aerial platforms are highly reliant on incoming streams of information which illuminate the reality of a rapidly evolving battlefield. Since 2019, India has struggled with the fact that it has no way of establishing a data link between its shiny new Rafales and the bulk of its fleet. This, along with difficulties in integrating electronic warfare capabilities and concerns about interoperability of systems between pilots, present serious concerns about how diverse India’s arsenal has become. The induction of the F-35 will likely only exacerbate these issues.

American weapons are capable, reliable, and potent. However, they always come with strings attached in the form of limitations on their use. Pakistan, for example, cannot use its F-16s against India as they were procured with the sole intent of combatting terrorists. This concern has been pointed out by several European countries, specifically with reference to the F-35 with Portugal unilaterally cancelling its acquisition of the aircraft. With Washington already having cancelled the sale of F-35s to Turkey due to the latter operating the Russian S-400 air defense system, any deal with India will likely come with some stipulations. This concern will likely be exacerbated by the historical perception in India that the United States always favors Pakistan during crisis situations.

Choosing Moscow

Unlike the United States, Russian weapons are cheaper and come with no strings attached. For India, which already operates a wide variety of Russian weapon systems, the SU-57 ought to be the obvious choice. However, there are two main issues with this option.

Firstly, there are some doubts regarding the capabilities of the aircraft. The Felon is notorious for having a much larger radar cross-section compared to its competitors, the F-22 and F-35. Moreover, until very recently, when it was reportedly upgraded with the new AL-51F1 engine, there were significant doubts about its supercruise capabilities. The biggest issue which has to do with the aircraft itself, in my opinion, is its production. The aircraft was first inducted in 2020, however the Russian air force reportedly employs between 40-60 of the aircraft, still far from its reported goal of a fleet of 76. This indicates a serious gap in production capabilities. Moreover, the Russian Federation is currently at war and most of its defense manufacturing capability will have to be focused towards filling domestic inventories.

The second problem is in the fact that acquiring a fifth generation Russian platform, one which it will likely operate for the next 30-40 years, goes directly against India’s policy of strengthening defense ties with the United States. Employing the F-35 has become a standard amongst the closest American allies such as the United Kingdom, Israel, Japan, and South Korea. By opting for the Russian option, India may jeopardize its defense relationship with the United States. Already, India’s purchase of Russian gas has brought on the threat of sanctions. Any further cooperation with Russia, particularly in defense, will likely bring on the ire of the temperamental Trump Administration.

Rock and Hard Place

With ever-increasing pressure from western powers to limit its relations with Russia, India is very much stuck between a rock and a hard place, particularly in terms of its defense procurements. The challenge facing India’s Air Force over the next few years will not be one which they can overcome through denial and disinformation. While India’s government must carefully balance between Russia and the United States, its armed forces ought to focus on repairing its relationship with the country’s indigenous defense industry. Otherwise, the next time India attempts to establish its dominance over the skies of the subcontinent, it may face more difficulty justifying its failure to the general public.