The Myth of ‘Peace’ in China’s Peaceful Rise

The article examines the concept of China’s peaceful rise in the multipolar world, assuming that China’s future trajectory may not be as peaceful as its past development. China’s remarkable economic growth and its subsequent increasing military expenditure signal a different and more assertive future development pattern. Rhetorically, China repeatedly pledged peaceful development. However, the article contends that the historical experiences of great powers’ rise, the new global realities, and significant domestic changes may eventually lead to a less peaceful future. Historically, the rise of a new great power has often led to conflict with the status quo, as seen in the cases of Germany, Japan, and the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

The dawn of the 21st century marked the beginning of new global challenges, which weakened the United States (US) legitimacy as a global hegemon and generated a leadership vacuum. Under Xi Jinping’s rule, China has developed new and assertive global ambitions, accompanied by significant domestic changes. China’s growing military expenditures, its push for reforms in the existing global system through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as well as alternative institutions like BRICS, can be seen as potential challenges to the existing global order. The article proposes the complete and unconditional integration of China into the existing system, alongside acknowledgment of its role within it. The integration of China into the existing system will likely prove vital in minimizing the prospects of its conflict with the established powers, particularly the US.

To expand on this, dynamism is an intrinsic feature of global power dynamics. A hegemon today may become a great/middle power tomorrow, and vice versa. Historically, it has been a constant feature of international relations. The transition period, marked by the dawn of a new power at the expense of the established power’s downfall, is usually characterized by heightened tensions. A similar situation can be witnessed in the contemporary era. Scholars assume that China may replace the US to become next global hegemon. This assertion is likely to have significant repercussions for the global power distribution matrix.

The above assertion stems from the remarkable economic growth of China in the past few decades. The World Bank (WB) reports indicate that China experienced an average GDP growth of 9.71% from 1989 to 2017, the highest sustained by any state. This unmatched economic growth has made China a leading economic power in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the second-largest global economy in terms of GDP. Moreover, this significant economic development put China in a more decisive position to modify the system to its advantage. Despite Western states’ concerns, China has always maintained that its growth trajectory will remain peaceful. Initially, China marked its economic growth as ‘peaceful rise’, which was renamed as ‘peaceful development’. This article, in line with offensive realism of Mearsheimer, posits that, despite China’s repeated assurances, its rise will likely not be peaceful for three primary reasons: historical patterns of power transition, newly emerging global realities, and domestic developments of China.

To begin with, history suggests that the rise of a new great power often creates strategic competition within a system. The tension arises from the contested ideologies between the rising and established powers. The conflicts stemming from power transition are evident in history and have several examples. For instance, the German rise, after its unification in 1871, marked the beginning of a great power race for power. The race eventually culminates in the beginning of World War I. The pattern was somewhat similar in imperial Japan’s quest for a power share in the post-WWI era, which eventually led to World War II. Significant crises and conflicts also marked the interwar period (1919-1939) due to the global power struggle for domination. The rise of the USSR in the aftermath of WWII also created similar dynamics as great powers were engaged in proxy wars throughout the Cold War era (1945/49-1991). A common feature among all these powers was their dissatisfaction with the established global power dynamics.

In the above-mentioned cases, Germany, imperial Japan, and the USSR were skeptical with their share in the power dynamics. Accordingly, they developed their militaries and tended to alter the power dynamics in their favor. China’s growth trajectory differs somewhat from its development, as it is primarily building its economy in the initial stages. As per understanding of Luttwak, existence of strategic culture is fundamental in formulating economic goals.

However, China’s economic growth is closely tied to its military development/modernization. China’s military budget has grown exponentially from US$27.86 billion in 1996 to US$246 billion (1.78 trillion) in 2025. Additionally, China’s military modernization further intensified with Xi’s rule. Xi’s quest to acquire more modern and sophisticated technological weaponry signals growing assertiveness of China, which may ignite conflict in the global realm.

The second supporting argument lies in the new global realities that emerged with the dawn of the 21st century. Many significant developments have occurred in the global realm over the past two and a half decades. The foremost among them is rise of China in the global power corridor. In 1978, as an aftermath of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, China began its economic development. However, the global dynamics are marked by several significant events including the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, the 9/11 in 2001, the US unilateral invasion of Iraq and its changing objectives in Afghanistan, the emergence of climate catastrophe, the American Financial Crisis of 2008, the Europe economic turmoil from 2012-2015, the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2014 & 2022, and other related events, significantly reduce the US legitimacy as a global power. The decline of the US in legitimacy creates a global leadership vacuum that other powers must fill. The economic strength of China, coupled with Xi’s global ambitions, makes it a potential alternative to the United States as a global power. The assertiveness of China is evident in its halt on rare earth minerals exports to the US and its allies. In the past, China was reluctant to halt rare earth minerals to the US and its allies. However, in Xi’s era, China uses this strategy as a potential weapon against the US.

The final supporting argument lies in the global initiatives of China. Undeniably, China repeatedly pledges its support for the existing global order. Notwithstanding, it also advocates for a new and more equitable power dynamics in the international system. However, unlike his predecessors, Xi is assertive in achieving fairer global power dynamics. On one hand, China is pushing for reforms within the existing system and actively forming new institutional mechanisms on the other. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a classic example of an alternative institutional mechanism through which China has engaged with over 100 states. Likewise, China’s active role in promoting South-South cooperation, primarily manifesting in institutions like BRICS, also signals its dissatisfaction with the existing power dynamics. Finally, ‘Community with Shared Future’ and ‘Asia for Asians’ are other China-led global initiatives. All the above-mentioned initiatives aim to reduce China’s and its allies’ dependency on existing global institutions. This may eventually trigger established powers to respond with countermeasures. Countermeasures from established powers are likely to trigger a conflict.

Alongside these major initiatives, China actively strives to enhance its presence in many regions across the globe, particularly through its flagship project,To begin with, China remains Africa’s largest trade partner, with a bilateral trade volume of approximately US$295.6 billion in 2024. Alongside trade agreements, China is actively engaging African countries through student exchange programs and other related strategies. In the Middle East, China emerged as a key player by brokering a deal between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two long-standing regional rivals. This was hailed as a significant strategic milestone by many experts. Alongside such diplomatic endeavors, China is one of the region’s major trading partners. The footprint of China is evident in Latin America as well, and regional states are concluding numerous deals with China. Despite several disagreements over the sovereignty of many Islands with regional states, China has maintained a strong sphere of influence in the East Asian region. Through the 17+1 mechanism, China strives to ensure its presence in Europe. So far, China has been able to conclude agreements with several Eastern and Central European states. Chinese officials are also attempting to forge an agreement with Western European states. In South Asia, China is the largest trade partner of India, with bilateral trade exceeding US$135 billion. The primary strategy employed by China to establish its presence across various regions is through economic diplomacy. China actively forges billions of dollars’ worth of agreements with hundreds of states globally. The US is attempting to counter China in nearly every region. The growing presence of China across various regions and the US active opposition may ultimately triggers a conflict between these two great powers.

The economies of world are in a complex interdependent situation, and the possibility exists that any conflict-triggering move from either a rising or established power could potentially lead to a long-lasting conflict. Here, it is worth mentioning that complexity of today’s conflict may differ from past conflicts. In the contemporary era, the US, along with its allies, strives to contain China through many strategies and channels. They form military alliances, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and I2U2, in the Asia-Pacific region. Besides, the US imposes tariffs on China. However, most of the global states are highly interconnected with China. Without China’s integration in the system, the conflict may become inevitable, and the ‘peace’ in China’s peaceful rise will likely remain missing.