Beyond Security: China Deepening Stake in Afghan Mining After the US Withdrawal
Beyond Security: China’s Deepening Stake in Afghan Mining After the US Withdrawal
The abrupt US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 created a large power vacuum and prompted China to improve its relations with the newly constituted Taliban regime. Much of the world had been busy condemning and criticizing the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) for its hardline views regarding human rights, specifically those related to rights of women to education and work. China, however, adopted a more pragmatic approach and in November 2023 accepted the Taliban ambassador in Beijing and sent its envoy to Kabul. China’s engagement with Afghanistan post-US withdrawal is predominantly characterized by a pragmatic drive to secure and develop its long-standing and new mining projects. In exploring the contours of Afghanistan, China is investing in copper and oil extraction aimed at economic gain and regional influence.
China has a long-standing interest in Afghanistan’s mining sector. Soon after the US withdrawal, China began to regain the projects signed with the previous Afghan government. China has invested millions of dollars in mining projects. Several mega projects were signed with the previous government, and China is eager to retain them despite the regime change. With a crumbling economy and severe humanitarian crises, the Taliban government needs trading partners, and China is the best option. Currently, various projects are ongoing, such as the Mes Aynak Copper mining project, signed in 2008, worth $3 billion, and was resumed in July 2024 after fifteen years of halt. The oil extraction at Amu Darya is another major project worth $540 million, signed between the Chinese company CPEIC Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company and the IEA. Both these projects will explore the vast natural resources of Afghanistan and will also contribute to local development. This will create a soft and positive image of China among the Afghan people and the government, which is facing huge pressure from the West.
Feature | Mes Aynak Copper Mining Project | Oil Extraction at Amu Darya |
| Location | Logar Province, Afghanistan | Amu Darya basin, Afghanistan (Sar-e Pol, Faryab, Jowzjan provinces) |
| Primary Investors | Metallurgical Corp. of China (MCC) & Jiangxi Copper Co. (JCC) | Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC/CPEIC) |
| Resource | 11.3 – 12 million tonnes of confirmed copper ore (with gold/silver). | ~87-962 million barrels of crude oil reserves. ~16-52 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Current daily oil extraction: ~1,300-3,000 tons/day. |
| Economic Significance | Potential $300-400 million annual revenue. Estimated tens of thousands of jobs (e.g., 3,000-4,000 direct, 35,000 indirect initially projected). | Reduces oil imports; economic stability. Provides ~1,500 direct and indirect jobs. |
Table 1Source: Afghan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, TOLO News, Asia News, and U.S. Geological Survey
Despite these projects, China is not investing heavily because of the security and political instability. Some analysts argue that currently, only companies that can afford risks are investing in Afghanistan. However, according to the Afghan deputy Prime Minister’s office, the China Afghan Mining Processing and Trading Company (FAMPTC) will invest $350 million in Afghanistan in a number of areas, such as health, cement factory building, and electricity generation. The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum reports that Chinese investors have been awarded contracts to extract Qashqari oil, Takhar gold, and Aynak copper in Logar. These three mines have received investments totaling more than $1 billion. The General Administration of Customs of China reports that last year’s bilateral trade volume increased by 125% to $1.33 billion, and the first half of 2024 has seen a trade volume of $750 million.
Post 2021, China has paid more attention to mining projects in Afghanistan, resulting in multiple impacts on Afghanistan, China, and the entire region. For Afghanistan, the financial and resource support from China in the mining sector is vital to its economy. The Afghan economy is destroyed, and many people are in dire straits. The Taliban must seek investment and income from abroad. These projects, including the Mes Aynak copper mine and Amu Darya oil extraction, are needed because they provide income and work opportunities to people whose region is facing high unemployment. More than just helping financially, China’s realistic actions, like allowing a Taliban ambassador and starting big projects, are giving real legitimacy to Afghanistan. With this interaction, Afghanistan is less isolated, and the Taliban can partner with a respected country, giving other nations a chance to reconsider their positions.
China’s involvement in Afghanistan’s mining sector is guided by the need for economic gains as well as security. Obtaining copper, oil, and rare earths from Afghanistan gives China an opportunity to grow its industrial base and secure resources for technology, making it less dependent on countries with unstable markets. On top of the financial gains, these projects increase China’s influence and networking in Central and South Asia. This type of effort allows China to face its top security worry: the influence of the ETIM (East Turkistan Islamic Movement) and other separatist organizations at its Xinjiang border. China’s aim is for Afghanistan to remain free from these groups by strengthening the Taliban in the economic sphere and increasing its security at home. Point 4 of the paper released by China states that the ETIM is a terrorist organization and poses a severe threat to the security of China, and China hopes the Afghan government will take effective steps to counter these groups and will support the interim government in this regard. Furthermore, China faces substantial risks, including the inherent political instability and volatile security situation in Afghanistan, which could jeopardize its investments. The protection of its citizens, those working on various projects in Afghanistan and neighboring countries, is also the top priority. China has also put a lot of effort into integrating Afghanistan into China’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by addressing the security issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In a recent trilateral meeting held in Beijing on May 21, China and Pakistan reaffirmed their cooperation in expanding the CPEC to Afghanistan as part of the larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
In conclusion, the growing presence in Afghanistan significantly alters the power dynamics. Such an approach can make it more difficult and less effective for Western countries to use human rights as grounds to isolate the Taliban. The approach focused on China’s practice of non-interference in countries’ internal issues and being pragmatic in its business efforts. There is persistent security situation which will impact China’s investments in Afghanistan and projects in the neighboring countries such as CPEC and the broader BRI as various groups are hostile to the neighboring countries, such as TTP to Pakistan, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) to Uzbekistan, and Islamic States Khorasan (ISK or ISKP) to the whole region. Along with these threats, China has maintained diplomatic relations, enabling the IEA to take effective measures to counter them and invest in mining and development projects. China, along with its regional partners, is working closely to facilitate the achievement of interim government of long-term stability in Afghanistan.
