Another Defeat for India

Another diplomatic blow came to India when it did not get the chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the defence ministers meeting of the organization in Chinese port city of Qingdao. Indian delegation with the defence minister Rajnath Singh in the lead tried to bring the issue of the recent Pahalgam incident and tried to associate the same to Pakistan to vindicate its cross-border terrorism narrative. But these actions turned to be disastrous. All the member states with exceptions of India unanimously refused to ratify the Indian effort because they considered it to be politically motivated and the issue not supportive of the cooperative spirit of the forum.

India’s Accusation Falls Flat

The issue that came up in the SCO meeting and that was spoken by Rajnath Singh was the alleged role of Pakistan in the Pahalgam incident, which several analysts call a prospective false flag operation to diplomatically put Pakistan in a corner. The speech of Singh reproached Islamabad of harbouring terrorism in the Indian Kashmir and demanded collective action against this kind of state sponsored terrorism. But these accusations were immediately rejected by the member states involved and they considered the matter as an internal affair which should be not subject to internationalization on a regional diverse group like the SCO.

What worsened the situation on India was that there was a collective statement of the meeting which also contained the counteraccusation by Pakistan against India; its engagement in the acts of terrorism in the province of Balochistan. It was a major victory to Pakistan on both the regional narrative and strategic message grounds since Balochistan was once a region in the southern part of Pakistan that had affected the internal security affairs of the country as Islamabad has always accused India of destabilizing the province by sponsoring the rebellion.

Pakistan’s Response Shifts the Narrative

Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan Defence Minister who represented his country at the meeting, eloquently and powerfully defended the position of Pakistan. Asif had repeated that the thorny issue of Kashmir is a lingering dispute in the international arena. He reminded the participants that Kashmir is illegally occupied by India which is a violation of international law and human rights violations by Indian security forces in the area is repeated.

Notably, Asif has taken it a notch higher by presenting documentary evidence on the Indian sponsored terrorism in Balochistan. This action on the part of the Pakistani side was proactive and self-assured and this changed the story. The effect was really being felt when the two countries had to agree on a joint declaration, which had taken account of the recommendations of Pakistan, and the allegations of India were not investigated. In another diplomatic gaffe to India, when Rajnath Singh tried to reply to the allegations by Pakistan, he was not allowed to do so.

India’s Isolation Within the SCO

The diplomatic failure could be seen in the size of India rejecting to sign the final joint declaration of SCO. It is not also the first time that India has gone the divergent way in the organization. It recently denied signing a SCO statement censuring Israeli military aggression in Iran further isolating it with most of the accession members.

The rising isolation of India in the grouping was evident when it staged a protest led walkout at the Qingdao meeting earlier this year. Although India has decided to join the SCO to enhance its control over the countries in Central Asia and to counterbalance the Chinese presence there, its initiatives have proven to be not very effective yet. Pakistan on the other hand has been able to consolidate its position by comparing more congruently with the overall interests of China, Russia, Iran and the republics of central Asia.

Missed Diplomatic Opportunities

During the same occasion, when Indian and Pakistani defence minister were seated on the same table, there did not occur bilateral meeting. The viewers commented on the chilly setting between the two officials, representing the general loss of communication and trust. The unilateral and aggressive behaviour as regards India is becoming more pronounced not only regarding the neighbours but also at the international level and this is becoming an impediment in the efforts of addressing the concerns of the neighbours even in the multilateral setup such as the SCO.

The opportunity of dialogue was missed in a crucial moment when the dynamics of regional security are changing at a fast pace. Middle East had only come out of a serious confrontation between Iran and Israel and before the meeting of SCO, there was NATO defence summit going on in The Hague. Over there they urged Western allies to increase their spending on defence largely hinting in such a way at the intention of the West to contain China, Russia and their allies most of whose members are the members of SCO.

A Broader Geopolitical Context

The activity of India within the SCO must also be considered in the context of military and diplomatic failures that the country has experienced lately. India had remained an embarrassing loser in Operation Banyan Marsus, an encounter during which Pakistan argues that it effectively repelled the Indian aggression, only a few weeks earlier. The operation was a massive setback to the Indian regional policy since India is commonly known to have adopted a four-pronged policy of gaining regional pre-eminence in South Asia.

The defence state of Pakistan praised the act as a landmark event that had defeated the military intentions of India besides gaining more international support to the Kashmir problem. The new world interest on Kashmir and US president Donald Trump suggestion to mediate the conflict has resulted in India being in a diplomatic corner.

The Qingdao meeting was not only another regional summit gathering, but it was a strategic turning point of sorts. The solidarity in which the member states of SCO showed to reject Indian efforts in isolating and discussing Pakistan showed one thing very crisply: one-sided blames does not exist in a multilateral group that is aimed at cooperation and stability in the region.

Lessons and the Road Ahead

India suffers defeat during meeting in SCO that is more than just diplomatic failure; it highlights the trend of strategic overreach and subsequent diplomatic isolation. The argument of India not recognizing the issues of other members of SCO and indulging in bilateral issues or taking them to an international arena is losing its allies and causing weakness to the position of India.

Pakistan is in comparison, however, seen to be displaying a measured and serene demeanour and one that is underpinned by strategic clarity. With the world increasingly transitioning to multipolarity, it is becoming obvious that such collaborative mechanisms as SCO will increasingly become the key player in the region providing both regional security and economic relations.

In the case of Pakistan, the existing momentum presents an occasion to further cement its position in the region especially with China, Russia, Iran, and the Central Asian countries. In the case of India, the next course of action involves some level of self-examination, realignment of its foreign policy interests, and ability to immerse itself into constructive and not propagandistic diploma. The SCO is increasing in power as the Western bloc strengthens and this means the future conflict or chance to work together will largely determine the kind of action each of the member states will take, aggression or dialogue.