Global Development Faces Setback

In 2024, the global development landscape experienced an unexpected and concerning slowdown, a trend that the United Nations has described as “unsettling.” This downturn followed the post-pandemic recovery, which, according to the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI), had indicated a rebound by 2023. However, the optimism that accompanied the initial recovery now seems to be fading, as evidenced by the latest report from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The report, released on Tuesday, highlights that the pace of recovery in health, education, and living conditions, which are tracked by the HDI, is losing momentum. The UNDP warns that if this slowdown persists, it could push back the achievement of human development goals that were once anticipated for 2030 by several decades. The consequences, as outlined in the report, could be dire, leading to a more insecure, divided world that is increasingly vulnerable to economic and ecological crises.

A major factor contributing to this decline is the recent drastic cuts in international aid, particularly from wealthy nations. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has been at the forefront of these reductions, with significant cuts to development programs and the dismantling of USAID, the country’s primary foreign aid arm. UNDP head Achim Steiner expressed concern that the reduction in funding from affluent nations would have long-term impacts on global development. According to Steiner, the withdrawal of aid from wealthy countries would eventually hinder economies and societies worldwide, potentially leading to lower life expectancy, declining incomes, and more frequent conflicts. This would, in turn, affect the Human Development Index, which measures the progress of nations in terms of health, education, and income.

The UNDP report, however, does not offer a definitive explanation for the slowdown observed in 2024. While experts are still investigating the root causes, one of the contributing factors seems to be a deceleration in improvements in life expectancy, which could be linked to the ongoing repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic or the increasing frequency of global conflicts. The wars that have proliferated around the world in recent years are having a significant impact on health systems and living conditions, further hindering the progress needed to sustain recovery and development.

Despite these challenges, the report does offer a potential avenue for reversing the trend: the use of artificial intelligence (AI). Steiner suggested that AI holds immense potential to reshape global development by creating new opportunities for individual economies, particularly in poorer nations. AI, according to the UNDP, could fundamentally alter many aspects of human life, opening new pathways for economic growth and social development. The technology’s transformative power could play a pivotal role in addressing some of the barriers to development in underdeveloped regions, particularly by improving healthcare, education, and economic accessibility.

However, the UNDP also cautioned that the benefits of AI would depend on how it is used. Access to AI technology is not equally distributed around the world, with wealthier nations having far more resources to harness its capabilities. Moreover, there are concerns about the potential for cultural biases to influence the development and deployment of AI tools. This disparity could limit the technology’s effectiveness in poorer countries, where the need for development is most acute. Nevertheless, Steiner emphasized that these risks can be mitigated through careful design and regulation, ensuring that AI is used responsibly, particularly in fields like medical research.

Conclusively, the future of global development is precariously balanced. While the world is facing a slowdown in human development, technological advances, especially in AI, offer a glimmer of hope. However, the success of this potential pivot depends largely on the choices made by both policymakers and individuals. The UNDP report underscores that the decisions we make today, regarding technology and international cooperation, will have far-reaching consequences for future generations.