From Vulnerability to Resilience
Pakistan is at a pivotal moment in its history. The nation’s ability to protect water, a finite and increasingly vulnerable resource, is now crucial to its economic future, food security, energy stability, and even national sovereignty. Pakistan, the lower riparian of the Indus Basin, is currently dealing with an unprecedented confluence of persistent domestic underinvestment, upstream aggression, and accelerating climate change. Due to these pressures, the country is now experiencing water insecurity, which is a current and growing crisis rather than a far-off warning. Pakistan must immediately increase water storage, modernize agricultural systems, and pursue unwavering transboundary diplomacy supported by strategic clarity and national resolve in order to secure its rightful water share and guarantee long-term resilience.
The structural asymmetry of the Indus Basin is the primary cause of Pakistan’s extreme water vulnerability. The western rivers, Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus, which are allotted to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), have seen an unrelenting campaign of upstream dam construction and diversion by India, the upper riparian. India has gradually tightened its control over flows vital to Pakistan’s survival, with over 150 hydropower and storage projects in varying stages of completion. This is happening in spite of Pakistan’s repeated objections, technical disagreements, and international arbitration procedures.
The pattern is clear: India is undermining the treaty that has governed regional water sharing for more than 60 years while simultaneously using geography, capacity, and political will to change the hydrological status quo
Reduced river flows are the most obvious example of the impact. Chenab inflows fell from 29,675 cusecs to just 11,423 cusecs in a single month in 2025 as a result of India’s unilateral gate closures on important projects. These variations are not just technical anomalies; they directly affect groundwater recharge, hydropower production, and irrigation cycles throughout Pakistan’s heartland. Ninety percent of Pakistan’s crops are irrigated by the Indus Basin, which also provides more than thirty percent of the country’s electricity and supports sixty percent of its population. Restricting these lifelines is essentially an attack on both national security and economic stability.
Environmental stress exacerbates the crisis. Due to climate change, Pakistan’s more than 7,000 glaciers—the greatest concentration outside of the polar regions—are melting at startling rates. This causes flash floods and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) at first, but the long-term effects are much worse: a predicted 30 to 40 percent drop in Indus River flows as glacial reserves run out. Pakistan has already fallen below the global water scarcity threshold, with per capita water availability falling from 5,260 cubic meters in 1951 to just 1,017 cubic meters in 2025. In contrast to Egypt’s 1,000-day buffer on the Nile or India’s 170+ days, the nation can only store a 30-day supply of water, which is a startling vulnerability.
These structural flaws are strategic vulnerabilities rather than just technical difficulties. Pakistan’s negotiating position is weakened, and India’s leverage is increased with each delayed dam and unlined canal. Pakistan is still vulnerable to abrupt upstream manipulations, whether unintentional, experimental, or intentional, in the absence of larger reservoirs. It is now a national security necessity rather than an engineering preference to be able to control flows, store excess water during high-runoff seasons, and distribute it effectively during shortages.
Large-scale initiatives like Dasu, Mohmand, and Diamer-Bhasha are essential cornerstones of a robust water infrastructure plan. To counteract India’s ability to switch taps on and off at will, they must be expedited
Pakistan’s antiquated agricultural and irrigation systems waste a resource that the country can no longer afford to waste. Due to seepage, antiquated flood irrigation techniques, and inadequate maintenance, more than 60% of water in canals is lost before it reaches fields. Modern telemetry systems, drip, sprinkler, laser leveling, canal lining, and high-efficiency irrigation techniques need to be national priorities. If Pakistan wants to feed more than 240 million people, water productivity per acre must increase dramatically. Pakistan’s agricultural economy is based on the Indus system, which is more than just a network of rivers. Safeguarding its flows is equivalent to safeguarding the nation.
However, technical fixes are not enough on their own. To uphold its rights as guaranteed by treaties, Pakistan must implement a firm, assertive, and well-coordinated diplomatic strategy. Despite India’s persistent violations and unilateral reinterpretations, the Indus Waters Treaty is still a legally binding international agreement. From the UN to impartial expert proceedings, Pakistan has continuously voiced its concerns with clarity and proof. However, persistence now needs to be combined with process. The main external threat to Pakistan’s water future is India’s upstream aggression rather than internal mismanagement.
In order to prevent unilateral river manipulation, Islamabad must internationalize the problem, mobilize international legal opinion, and form strategic alliances
Pakistan needs to have a common goal in order to move from vulnerability to resilience. The nation is at a turning point where hesitation could have existential repercussions. Transboundary diplomacy must be pursued with unwavering resolve, agricultural modernization must be embraced, and mega-storage projects must be expedited. The stakes are quantified in terms of crops grown or lost, turbines operating or stalling, and thriving or parched cities; they are not abstract.
Pakistan has a right to its water, and protecting it is a must. It is a national duty. Since no country can exist without control over its lifelines, no compromise can be accepted. Incremental measures are no longer appropriate. Before vulnerability becomes irreversible, Pakistan needs to take swift, decisive, and coordinated action.
