Reaffirming the Indus Waters Treaty

The Institute for Economics and Peace’s 2025 Ecological Threat Report (ETR) has once again brought the complicated relationship between fragile ecosystems and geopolitical tensions to the world’s attention. One of its most sobering findings is that areas that rely on rivers that cross borders are more vulnerable. For Pakistan, this warning hits home because it is a fact that will never change: the Indus River system is not just a natural resource; it is the basis for national survival, food security, and social and economic stability. In this context, the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is more than just a legal document; it is the key to Pakistan’s future. India’s ongoing upstream interventions, which undermine both the treaty’s explicit provisions and its cooperative spirit, are putting more and more strain on the treaty’s integrity.

The Indus River is the most important part of Pakistan’s economy. The country’s flows are responsible for more than 90% of its agricultural output, and millions of rural families depend on its seasonal rhythms. Any change, whether it’s a decrease in flows, a change in timing, or an increase in unpredictability, has an immediate effect on Pakistan’s food systems, rural jobs, and overall economic stability. This is exactly why the ETR’s focus on the global rise of ecological stressors, especially water scarcity in politically unstable basins, is so important for South Asia.

In a region already dealing with climate change that causes glaciers to melt, monsoons that don’t always happen, and droughts that last for a long time, unilateral upstream manipulation becomes more than just a problem for the government; it becomes a threat to life itself

India’s rapid building of dams and flow-regulation systems on the Western Rivers, Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus, which were supposed to be used only by Pakistan under the Treaty, is a clear violation of the IWT’s specific design and operational parameters. The Treaty allows India to use some upstream areas, but these uses are very limited so that they don’t change the natural flows to Pakistan. But the way infrastructure is growing, the lack of technical data, and the lack of transparency around important projects all make it harder for people to trust each other when it comes to managing rivers. The 2025 ETR shows that when people in shared basins don’t trust each other, the chances of conflict go up a lot. The Indus is already losing trust.

Recent decisions from the Court of Arbitration have strengthened the Treaty and Pakistan’s long-standing concerns. These decisions confirm that Pakistan has the right to ask for clarification and corrective action when upstream designs go against the Treaty. More importantly, they make it clear that the IWT’s ways of settling disputes are final and binding. This is to make sure that there is no escalation by making sure that the decision is made fairly. In a time when geopolitical tensions are rising quickly, following these rules is not an option; it is the only way to ensure lasting peace in South Asia.

Any change to Pakistan’s legally guaranteed water rights is much more than a technical or diplomatic issue. It is a type of socio-economic coercion that has serious effects on people. When water flows drop suddenly at important times for farming, Pakistani farmers have to deal with lost crops, lower incomes, more debt, and long-term soil degradation. Rural areas are already vulnerable to climate shocks, but now they are even more food insecure and have to move.

The ETR says that ecological problems make things unstable, increase inequality, and weaken national unity. India’s upstream actions cause not only environmental damage but also social and political instability

The effects on the environment of less freshwater flow are just as bad. The Indus Delta, which is one of the most threatened ecological zones in the world, is a great example of this. Seawater intrusion, which is caused by less water flowing from rivers, is slowly moving inland, making fertile lands barren and polluting groundwater. The mangrove forests that used to be full of life, protected the coast from erosion, and served as nurseries for marine life have been destroyed. These ecological losses are permanent for humans, and they show a basic truth: decisions made upstream have long-lasting effects downstream. Unilateralism will not work for sustainable river management. Instead, it needs cooperative stewardship based on openness and respect for each other.

The 2025 IEP report teaches us one clear lesson: areas that don’t set up formal ways for people to work together on shared waters are more likely to become unstable. On the other hand, basins that are governed by strong treaties, like the IWT, show that they can handle political stress. For more than sixty years, the Treaty has kept two nuclear-armed neighbors from going to war, even though there have been wars, crises, and long periods of diplomatic freeze.

Its long life is proof of its design, but its future depends on how well it follows both its legal obligations and its cooperative spirit

For South Asia to have lasting peace, India needs to stop using water as a bargaining chip and instead fully commit to the Treaty’s binding principles. To rebuild trust, it is important to be open about sharing data, follow design guidelines, respect the results of arbitration, and acknowledge Pakistan’s reliance on the Western Rivers. Pakistan must continue to assert its rights through diplomatic means, improve the efficiency of its water use at home, and improve its ability to monitor and assess.
Reaffirming the Indus Waters Treaty is not just a matter of legal accuracy; it is also a matter of strategic foresight. In the next few decades, there will be more and more water shortages. Cooperative frameworks will determine which areas can handle the stress and which ones will fall apart due to environmental and political problems. The Indus basin can’t afford the second one. The only way to get justice, hold people accountable, and keep the region stable for a long time is to follow the Treaty in both letter and spirit.